Daily Market Report June 23rd, 2025
The market did on Friday the same thing that it did the previous trading day which was on Wednesday, namely start very higher and then ended mostly lower, such as the Dow getting to an early 260 point gain but slipped to a final 35 point close to 42,206 led by AAPL of all things in addition to financials such as AXP, GS and JPM.
The S&P really got blasted from a 38 point opening gain to a closing 13 point loss to 5968 on some technology weakness for a second straight week of declines, while the Nasdaq turned an opening gain of 150 into a final 99 point decline to 19,447.
The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks slipped by 3 points to 2100 while the VIX actually went lower on a mainly down day in equities to 20.62. It was the final closeout of the June stock index futures which might have had something to do with the market action while the September contract is now the main item of interest.
Treasury yields also held relatively steady in the bond market after the President said he will decide within two weeks whether the U.S. military will get directly involved in Israel’s fighting with Iran. The window offers the possibility of a negotiated settlement over Iran’s nuclear program that could avoid increased fighting. Of course, this idea went out the window with the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend and the initial market reaction for today is ……….
The conflict has sent oil prices moving higher again over the last week, which has in turn caused see-saw moves for the U.S. stock market, because of fears that the war could disrupt the global flow of crude. Iran is a major producer of oil and also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s crude passes.
KR gained after the grocer reported a better profit for the latest quarter than forecast. It also raised its forecast for an underlying measure of revenue for the full year. But while its C.E.O. said it’s seeing positive momentum, the company is still working under an overall economic situation.
KMX rose after the auto dealer reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company said it sold nearly 6% more used autos during the quarter than it did a year earlier.
On the losing end was SWBI which collapsed by 20%, the gun maker, after reporting profit and revenue for the latest quarter that fell just shy of analysts’ expectations. Its C.F.O. said “persistent inflation, high interest rates, and uncertainty caused by tariff concerns” have been hurting sales for firearms, and the company expects demand in its upcoming fiscal year to be similar to this past year’s, depending on how inflation and tariffs play out.
A spate of companies has been adjusting or even withdrawing their financial forecasts for 2025 because of all the uncertainty that tariffs are creating for customers and for suppliers. Everyone is waiting to see whether Trump will reach trade deals with other countries that could lower his tariffs on imports, many of which are currently on pause, even though he recently proclaimed that the U.S. is taking in billions of dollars from tariffs despite the fact that there are basically no agreements with anyone except for the U.K. for which the U.S. already has a trade surplus.
It is not just corporate America that’s waiting. The Federal Reserve has been keeping its main interest rate on hold this year, with its latest such decision coming last week because it wants to see more data about how much tariffs will grind down on the economy and push up inflation.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively stable. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.37% from 4.38% late Wednesday. The two-year yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Fed will do, fell to 3.90% from 3.94%.
What was strange were the comments from Fed governor Chistopher Waller when he said that a rate cut could be on the table at the July 30th meeting when eight governors said that there would be two cuts this year and seven others said none at all.
Earnings this week include the following: today – FDS higher; tonight - KBH; Tuesday – CCL, FDX; Wednesday – GIS, JEF, MU, PAYX, WGO; Thursday – Dow component NKE, MKC, WBA.
Economic reports will include: May existing home sales were ahead by 0.8%; Tuesday – May Consumer Confidence; Wednesday – May new home sales; Thursday – weekly jobless claims, May pending home sales, final 1Q G.D.P. estimate, June preliminary durable goods orders; Friday – June P.C.E. Index, June Consumer Sentiment Survey, May personal income and spending.
By Don Selkin